A new study from Carbon Tracker, ‘Lost in Transition: How the energy sector is missing potential demand destruction’, reveals fossil fuel companies are overlooking the scale and pace at which demand for oil, coal and gas could fall.
Rapid advances in renewables and battery technologies, together with international climate change commitments, mean low-carbon will become the status quo much faster than energy companies like to predict.
The report reveals most published scenarios show fossil fuel demand growing 30-50% and still providing 75% of energy demand by 2040, and yet this no longer marries up given the pledge last week by 10 major oil and gas companies to take action to limit global warming to 2C.
It also finds that some energy companies are cherry picking forecasts on global economic and population growth, and energy intensity, without considering alternative forecasts that would lead to much lower demand. For example, many use the IEA forecast of 3.4% global growth to 2040, but the OECD forecast of 3.1% over the same period would significantly reduce demand for fossil fuels.
You can read the full report here